Saturday, July 23, 2011

Trading prospects at the deadline: A history and some predictions for the 2011 deadline

Daniel Hudson was one of many good prospects to have found a new team at last year's deadline. Which prospect will find a new home at this year's deadline?
The Trade deadline is 9 days away, but that doesn't mean that there won't be any player moves in the coming days. As of now, there have been a few relatively minor deals, most of which involve major leaguers for PTBNL's or players to be named later. In these cases, a prospect will likely find himself in a new organization. However, there are also blockbuster deals in which a high profile major leaguer will be sent to another club, and in return, the team will get prospects. These deals are much more commonplace, and in a way, more exciting than straight major leaguer deals. Here are 3 examples of deals in which major leaguers were dealt for prospects, and the prospects made a significant impact:

1990: Boston Red Sox trade Jeff Bagwell to Houston Astros for Larry Anderson: While most Red Sox fans look at this as a terrible move, virtually every Astros fan agrees that Bagwell is perhaps the greatest Astro of all time. After the deal, he hit almost 450 home runs, won Rookie of the Year in 1991 and MVP in 1994, and was a 4 time all star. In 2007, Bagwell was given the ultimate honor for any Astro, when his number was permanently retired. Arguably, Bagwell is the greatest Astro ever.








1996: Seattle Mariners trade David Ortiz to Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins: Back in 1996, David Ortiz was a middling prospect known as David Arias. Had he not been traded to Minnesota for a guy named Dave Hollins, the only thing that would have changed about him would have been his name. After the deal, Ortiz became a solid DH for the twins for a few years, before he moved on to Boston in 2003, where he has become synonymous with clutch hitting.











2004: New York Mets trade Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano: I am a Mets fan, and 7 years later, even though Kazmir is essentially broken down, I still get knots in my stomach when I think of this deal. Kazmir was a highly touted prospect out of high school 2 years away from going to the big leagues. In a deal that essentially ruined Jim Duquette's general managing career, he sent the flamethrower to Tampa Bay, still known as the pathetic Devil Rays. In 2 years, Kazmir became part of the fine young core that brought the Rays to their first postseason, and their first World Series.


And so there you have it. 3 prospects who went on to have good careers.

When the deadline comes around, there will be a few prospects on the move, some high level players, some not as high. Here are a few players who could find themselves on the move.

Mark Rogers, P Milwaukee Brewers: There is no doubt in my mind that Mark Rogers will be on the move some time in the next few days, or even in a month or two. There is also no doubt in my mind where he could possibly be going too: the New York Mets. Should Carlos Beltran be traded to Milwaukee, there is a definite possibility of him catching the next flight to JFK, then another to Buffalo. Should Beltran not be traded to Milwaukee, he could be one of the 2 players to be named in the Francisco Rodriguez deal. Either way, Rogers is a possible hot commodity, whom the Mets should try and get. He's fast, and although he has a bit of a control issue as well as a small injury history, he could be a solid starter.

Lars Anderson, 1B Boston Red Sox: This is purely speculation, but my feeling is that if the Red Sox are still high on Kevin Youkilis, Lars could become expendable, he could possibly be included in a deal for pitching help. Lars is a slick defender and has a decent bat, so he could be another Bagwell-in-waiting. Regardless, if any team should deal with Boston, Lars is the perfect bargaining chip to have.






Zach Wheeler
Brandon Belt
Gary Brown
One of the Giants big 3 prospects: Consider this: Buster Posey is done for the year, Freddy Sanchez is also hurt, Tim Lincecum is borderline ineffective, and Brian Wilson is gimping. In short, the Giants chances of returning to the Fall classic are doomed if they don't do anything. Well, okay, they may have added a couple guys at no risk, like Bill Hall and Jeff Keppinger, but seriously, they will not win many games with those two as summer rentals. The Giants will have to get rid of at lest one of their big 3 prospects: pitcher Zach Wheeler, first baseman Brandon Belt, and outfielder Gary Brown. Wheeler doesn't have a lot of pitches, but his fastball and curveball are a deadly one-two punch, while his changeup is average at best. His mechanics do not need to be changed, and he's a possible middle rotation starter. Belt and Brown are contact guys, but Belt's other strength is his discipline, while Brown's is his speed. Regardless, both are solid guys, and one of the three could be a potential star, even if it comes at the cost of not being in a Giants jersey.

And there you have it. While my predictions may or may not come true, it is likely that during the deadline, there will be at least 1 high level prospect will be moved. That's all for today. Until next time.